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US Economic Outlook Forecast: Expert Analysis 2023

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Kenneth Keith
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The US economy is set to slow down in 2024, with growth expected to be just 0.7%. Experts say this slowdown comes from tighter money policies and the end of pandemic-related boosts. Consumer spending will grow less, and government policies might start to slow growth down.

Business investments and home buying, which fell in 2023, will likely get better in 2024. But, the growth will still be limited by high interest rates.

Key Takeaways

  • The US economy is forecast to slow in 2024, with real GDP growth projected at a below-trend 0.7% pace.
  • Monetary policy tightening and the fading of post-pandemic tailwinds are contributing to the economic deceleration.
  • Consumer spending growth is expected to moderate, while fiscal policy may shift from a positive to a modest drag on growth.
  • Business investment and housing activity are expected to improve in 2024, but the overall outlook remains constrained by higher interest rates.
  • Inflation is projected to gradually normalize to the Fed’s 2% target by 2025 as GDP growth rises towards its potential.

Economic Growth Projections

The economic outlook for the United States in 2024 and beyond looks mixed. Real GDP growth is expected to slow down to 0.7% in 2024, from 2.9% in 2023. This slowdown is due to several factors affecting the GDP outlook.

Factors Affecting GDP

Consumer spending is expected to slow down. As savings decrease, wages stop growing, and student loan payments start again, spending will increase less than in 2023. Also, tighter money policies and a shift in fiscal policy will make the economy slower.

But, there are positive signs too. Business investment and housing are likely to get better in 2024. This could balance out the slower consumer spending. Yet, the economy will still grow slowly because of high interest rates.

Consumer Spending Trends

Consumer spending, key to economic growth, will grow less in 2024 than last year. This is because savings are running low, wages aren’t rising, and student loans are being paid back. Still, people’s financial health and jobs support their spending, making the slowdown less severe.

Even with slower growth in 2024, the economy’s core remains strong. Businesses and policymakers must watch these trends closely. They need to take steps to adapt to the changing economy.

Inflation and Interest Rate Outlook

The US economy is moving forward after the pandemic, and inflation and interest rates are key topics. Inflation has dropped from its 2022 peak but is still above the Federal Reserve’s 2% goal for 2024. The Fed plans to keep interest rates between 5.25%-5.5% until mid-2024. Then, it will lower the rates by 25 basis points at each meeting, aiming for 4.00%-4.25% by year’s end.

The Fed will also reduce its balance sheet by $95 billion a month, taking out about $1 trillion from the economy in 2024. This move, along with high interest rates, aims to control inflation and meet the Fed’s goal of price stability.

“The Federal Open Market Committee is not yet convinced that progress toward the 2% inflation goal has been achieved, requiring more positive price reports.”

The May 2023 consumer price report showed some progress, keeping the 10-year Treasury rate in the 4% range. But the Fed is still watching closely, waiting for more signs of inflation slowdown before lowering rates.

Interest Rate Metric Projected Range
Federal Funds Rate 4.00%-4.25% (by end of 2024)
10-Year Treasury Yield Lower half of 4% range
30-Year Fixed Mortgage Rate Stable around 7.0%
15-Year Fixed Mortgage Rate Stable around 6.3%
AAA-Rated Corporate Bond Yield Around 4.9%
BBB-Rated Corporate Bond Yield Around 5.6%
CCC-Rated Corporate Bond Yield Approximately 13.8%

The Fed’s monetary policy will greatly affect interest rates, including short-term rates, corporate bond yields, and mortgage rates. As the Fed balances inflation control with economic growth, the future of interest rates is key for businesses, consumers, and policymakers.

Labor Market Indicators

The US labor market is showing signs of returning to normal. Job growth is slowing down, unemployment is rising a bit, and people are quitting jobs less often. By the end of 2024, the unemployment rate might hit the mid-4% range. This is because companies are less likely to lay off workers in a slowing economy.

Wages have been growing less over time. They are expected to grow even less as the labor market cools down. This could make it harder for people to afford things.

Unemployment Rate Forecast

The unemployment rate in the US was 4.1% in June 2024, the highest since November 2021. Jobs grew by about 222,333 each month in the first half of 2024, more than expected. But, job growth was revised down by 111,000 for April and May. This shows the labor market is slowing down.

Wage Growth Expectations

Wages are expected to grow less in 2024 as the labor market cools. With fewer jobs being created and people changing jobs less, wages might drop. This could make people spend less because they won’t have as much money.

Wages grew by 3.9% over the past year, down from earlier highs. The Fed Chair wants inflation to go down to 2% before cutting interest rates. So, wages will likely need to grow even less to meet the Fed’s goals.

Indicator Current Value Forecast
Unemployment Rate 4.1% (June 2024) Mid-4% range (by end of 2024)
Average Monthly Wage Growth 3.9% (12 months ending June 2024) Continued Slowdown
Non-Farm Payrolls Growth 222,333 jobs/month (first half of 2024) Gradual Moderation

The labor market is slowly getting back to normal. The unemployment rate is going up, and wages are growing less. But, the job market is still strong, with lots of job openings and not enough workers. This could keep pushing wages and prices up.

Housing and Real Estate Sector

The US housing market has seen a big drop of 30-40% in the last 18 months. This drop is mainly because mortgage rates have gone up a lot. The Federal Reserve raised interest rates to fight high inflation.

Now, homes are less affordable than they have been in 40 years. Most mortgages are at 4% or lower. This has made the housing market slow down. People are waiting to buy or sell homes because of the high rates.

Mortgage Rates and Affordability

Higher mortgage rates have made homes less affordable. The S&P CoreLogic Case-Shiller National Home Price Index shows home prices went up by 6.3% in April last year. But, prices only went up by 0.3% month-over-month.

The housing market is slowing down. In May, there were fewer new homes started and sold. Single-family and multifamily starts both fell. New home sales dropped by 11.1% to their lowest in a year.

Despite the current issues, the housing sector is expected to do better in 2024. Once the Federal Reserve stops raising interest rates, the market should start to get better. This could be good news for both buyers and sellers.

Indicator 2023 Forecast 2024 Forecast
Home Price Growth 2.5% 4.0%
Mortgage Rates 6.5% 5.5%
Housing Starts 1.2 million 1.4 million
Existing Home Sales 4.0 million 4.5 million

“The housing market is effectively frozen due to the surge in mortgage rates and the resulting affordability challenges. However, as the Federal Reserve completes its rate hike cycle, we expect the housing sector to gradually recover in 2024.”

Business Investment and Productivity

The outlook for business investment and productivity in the United States is changing. After a drop in 2023, 2024 is expected to see a slight increase. But, the high interest rates will still limit these investments.

New laws like the CHIPS and Science Act and the Inflation Reduction Act will boost business. They will help the high-tech sector a lot. Also, new tech like AI will make companies more productive and increase investments in new ideas.

Experts say business investment will grow by 3% in 2024, less than the 4.5% last year. High interest rates make it harder for businesses to borrow money. But, new laws and tech will help balance this out.

The government’s spending plans will also affect business investment. Government spending is set to increase by 2.5% in 2024. This could give businesses more chances to invest in things that grow the economy.

Indicator 2023 2024 (Forecast)
Business Investment Growth 4.5% 3%
Government Spending Growth 2% 2.5%
Real GDP Growth 2.2% 2.4%

The economy is facing new challenges after the pandemic. How business investment, productivity, and government policies work together will shape our economic future.

“The increased use of AI and other novel technologies is projected to drive growth in intellectual property investments and contribute to productivity gains.”

Fiscal Policy and Government Spending

The US economy is set for a change in fiscal policy in 2023. Last year, the economy got a big boost from government spending, with the budget deficit almost doubling to $1.84 trillion. Now, we expect a slight slowdown in 2024.

The deficit is expected to drop to 5.9% of GDP in 2024. This means the government might spend less, but interest payments on debt will go up. This could slow down the economy’s growth a bit next year.

Budget Projections for FY 2024 Figures
Outlays $6.8 Trillion
Revenues $4.9 Trillion
Deficit $1.9 Trillion
Debt Held by the Public $28.2 Trillion

Looking forward, the future of our finances is a worry. Over the next 10 years, we expect huge deficits and debt. By 2034, debt could hit 122% of our GDP.

“The waning effects of pandemic-era transfers and subsidies, along with a slight pullback in government spending, is expected to result in a more moderate fiscal policy stance in 2024.”

Even though the short-term changes in fiscal policy won’t greatly affect growth, we must tackle the big issues. Managing our finances well is key to keeping our economy strong and stable.

fiscal policy

Trade and Global Economic Dynamics

The US economy is doing well compared to many others around the world. This is shown in its trade numbers. In 2024, the US is expected to see a 3.1% increase in imports, while exports will grow by 2.4%. This shows the US economy is strong, but some countries are facing challenges.

World trade is facing uncertainty due to things like the Ukraine conflict and tensions with China. But, these issues haven’t hit the US too hard so far. The US is doing well thanks to strong productivity, job growth, and good economic policies.

Export and Import Projections

Experts predict a slowdown in global trade growth for the second half of 2023. They expect a 1.1% increase for the whole year, which is less than before the pandemic. This slowdown is a big drop from the 3.2% growth from 2015 to 2019.

But, things are expected to get better in 2024 with a 3.0% increase in world trade. This is in line with what other experts think, showing a return to normal trade levels by the end of the forecast.

Metric 2023 2024
Global Trade Growth 1.1% 3.0%
US Import Growth – 3.1%
US Export Growth – 2.4%

The difference in US import and export growth shows the US is doing better than many others. As the world deals with issues like geopolitical tensions and supply chain problems, the US stands out for its stability and growth in trade.

“The trade projections are in line with forecasts from peer institutions that signal a normalization of the world trade outlook from 2024 onwards.”

Risks and Uncertainties

The global economy faces many risks and uncertainties. Geopolitical risks like trade tensions with China, the Russia-Ukraine war, and conflicts in the Middle East add to the uncertainty. These issues make the future hard to predict.

There’s a big worry about a supply shock of important goods like energy, food, or semiconductors. Such disruptions could cause big market swings and affect the economy a lot. So far, the US economy has been okay, but the risk of supply chain problems is still big.

Geopolitical Tensions

The world is still in a state of high tension, with ongoing trade tensions and conflicts affecting the economy. Issues between the US and China, and the Russia-Ukraine war, can disrupt trade, supply chains, and financial markets. This leads to more uncertainty and economic ups and downs.

Supply Chain Disruptions

Supply chain bottlenecks have gotten better, but changing the global supply chain takes time. Laws like the CHIPS and Science Act and the Inflation Reduction Act help some industries, like semiconductors and renewables, make things in the US. But, making these changes is slow because it’s expensive and complicated.

Dealing with geopolitical risks and supply chain challenges is key for businesses and leaders. They need to keep the economy stable and growing despite the uncertainty.

Risk Factors Potential Impact Likelihood
Geopolitical tensions Disruption to trade, supply chains, and financial markets High
Supply chain disruptions Shortages of critical goods and manufacturing delays Medium
Economic slowdown in China Reduction in global growth by 0.2 percentage points Medium
Financial stress in developing economies Decrease in global growth by 0.2 percentage points Low

As the global economy deals with these uncertainties, everyone needs to stay alert and ready to adapt. This will help keep the economy strong and growing.

economic outlook forecast

The US economy is expected to grow at a slower rate in 2024, with a forecast of 0.7%. This slowdown is due to the effects of tighter money policies and the end of pandemic-related boosts. Despite this, the US economy is set to do better than many others worldwide. However, factors like slower spending, possible changes in government policies, and high interest rates will slow growth.

Experts predict GDP growth will pick up to near 2% by 2025, with inflation returning to the Federal Reserve’s goal. But, consumer spending is slowing down, and people are less optimistic about the future. Real income growth is also slowing, and debt is rising fast, making people spend more on debt payments.

The job market is expected to soften but not drastically. Business spending dropped in early 2024 due to high interest rates, and this trend is likely to continue. Imports are set to grow by 3.1% in 2024, while exports will increase by 2.4%.

If inflation and global conflicts continue, GDP growth will be lower, at 2.2% in 2024 and 0.6% in 2025. On the other hand, a positive scenario sees labor markets thriving, with GDP growing at 2.2% annually from 2024 to 2028.

The outlook for 2024 is mixed, with both challenges and opportunities ahead. Those in charge of policy and businesses must carefully navigate these economic conditions. They need to support steady growth and resilience in the face of ongoing economic trends.

Energy and Commodity Prices

The global economy is facing ups and downs due to energy and commodity price changes. So far, the US economy has seen little direct impact. But, there’s a big worry about market trouble and ongoing price hikes.

Experts say energy prices will go down by 3 percent this year, and another 4 percent in 2025. Natural gas prices fell sharply in early 2024, dropping by almost 40 percent from last year. Brent crude oil prices are expected to average $84 per barrel this year, then drop to $79 per barrel next year.

In agriculture, prices went up in early April, mainly because of higher cocoa and Robusta coffee costs. Metal prices are expected to stay about the same in 2024 before going up. The price of beverages is set to jump by 22 percent this year, then slow down in 2025.

Commodity Forecast for 2024 Forecast for 2025
Brent Crude Oil $84 per barrel $79 per barrel
Natural Gas 40% lower than 2023 N/A
Agricultural Prices Surge in cocoa and Robusta coffee N/A
Metal Prices Relatively unchanged Rising steadily
Beverage Prices 22% increase Tapered off

Commodities make up about 36% of the CPI, with energy at 7% and food at over 13%. Last year, commodity prices rose only 0.8%, less than the past two years. Yet, the risk of supply shocks and ongoing inflation is still high for the US economy.

The world is still dealing with the COVID-19 pandemic and geopolitical tensions. This means energy and commodity markets will keep being watched closely by policymakers, businesses, and consumers.

Regional Economic Outlook

The national economy is slowing down, but states and cities in the US are doing differently. Things like what industries they have, how they use their workforce, and their economic focus affect their growth. This makes some places grow faster than others. The Regional Economic Outlook shows how these areas might do in the next two years.

State and Metro Area Forecasts

Looking at growth in states and cities shows the US economy’s complex picture. Some trends to watch for in 2023 and 2024 include:

  • The East Asia and Pacific region is growing faster than the world average, but not as fast as before the pandemic.
  • South Asia is set to be the fastest-growing area globally.
  • Sub-Saharan Africa’s growth is expected to pick up from 2.6% in 2023 to 3.4% in 2024.
  • The Europe and Central Asia region’s growth is forecasted to slow down to 2.8% in 2024.
  • Latin America and the Caribbean’s GDP is expected to grow by 1.6% in 2024, with faster growth in 2025 and 2026.
  • Inflation in Latin America and the Caribbean is lower than in OECD countries, at 3.5%.
  • The Middle East and North Africa (MENA) region is expected to see modest growth in 2024, returning to pre-pandemic levels.

These trends show the varied economic scenes in the US and worldwide. They stress the need to look at state and city forecasts for a full economic picture.

Region 2023 Growth 2024 Growth 2025 Growth 2026 Growth
East Asia and Pacific 5.0% 4.5% N/A N/A
South Asia N/A N/A N/A N/A
Sub-Saharan Africa 2.6% 3.4% 4.0% N/A
Europe and Central Asia N/A 2.8% N/A N/A
Latin America and Caribbean 2.3% 1.6% 2.7% 2.6%
Middle East and North Africa (MENA) N/A 2.9% N/A N/A

The data shows how different regions are doing economically. South Asia and Sub-Saharan Africa are expected to grow the most, while Europe and the MENA region will grow less. This highlights why it’s key to look at state and city forecasts to understand the US economy better.

“The economic growth projections for states and metro areas highlight the nuanced landscape of the US economy, with factors like industry composition and labor market dynamics leading to divergent performance across different regions.”

Financial Sector and Credit Conditions

The US economy is going through tough times with higher interest rates. This has made the financial sector very complex. Banks, especially small and regional ones, are finding it hard to lend money. This is true especially in the commercial real estate sector.

There’s a lot of commercial real estate debt coming due, about $550 billion in the next year. This could lead to big losses for lenders and investors. But, it’s not expected to cause a big problem for the whole system.

The financial sector is facing a huge deficit, expected to hit $1.6 trillion by 2024 and $2.6 trillion by 2034. By 2034, the deficit will be 5.6 percent of GDP, much higher than the past average. Debt will also increase, reaching 116 percent of GDP by 2034, the highest ever.

The commercial real estate sector might see less lending and more losses. This could slow down the economy. Banks in the Euro area will also face higher costs to fund their activities. Real estate prices are falling due to higher mortgage costs.

Metric 2024 Projection 2025 Projection 2034 Projection
Financial Sector Deficit $1.6 trillion N/A $2.6 trillion
Deficit as % of GDP 5.6% 6.1% 6.1%
Debt Held by the Public 99% of GDP N/A 116% of GDP

To fix these issues, we need a strong plan from policymakers and regulators. They should focus on making the financial sector stronger and more resilient. This means finishing Basel III reforms, completing the banking union, and fixing problems in the non-bank financial sector.

“An era of higher real interest rates is predicted, marking the conclusion of cheap money that started after the Great Financial Crisis.”

Conclusion

The US economy is expected to grow at a slower rate in 2024, with a forecast of 2.4% real GDP growth. This slowdown is due to the effects of tighter monetary policy, the end of pandemic-related boosts, and less spending by consumers. Despite this, the US economy is set to outperform many other countries in the short term.

However, factors like geopolitical tensions and supply chain issues will add uncertainty to the economic outlook. These challenges mean policymakers and businesses need to stay alert and adaptable. Despite these hurdles, the US economy is strong, with a healthy job market and low inflation. Making decisions based on data and being agile will help navigate these economic changes.

The forecast for 2024 shows a mixed economic picture, with growth slowing but still trending upward. By keeping an eye on the economic outlook and key forecasts, businesses and policymakers can make smart choices. The key takeaways highlight the importance of staying vigilant, flexible, and well-informed about the economic factors at play.

FAQ

What is the expected economic growth rate for the US in 2024?

The US economy is set to slow down in 2024. Experts predict a growth rate of 0.7%, which is below average.

What factors are contributing to the slower economic growth?

The slowdown comes from tighter monetary policies and the end of post-pandemic boosts.

What is the outlook for consumer spending in 2024?

Consumer spending will grow but at a slower pace. Fiscal policies might start to slow down growth too.

How is the labor market expected to perform in 2024?

The labor market is getting back to normal. Job growth will slow down, unemployment will rise a bit, and people quitting jobs will decrease.

What is the outlook for inflation and interest rates in 2024?

Inflation will keep being above the Federal Reserve’s goal of 2% in 2024. Interest rates will stay at 5.25%-5.5% until mid-2024. Then, they might start to drop.

How is the housing market expected to perform in 2024?

The housing market will likely improve in 2024, but it’s still expected to be soft. It has dropped by 30-40% in the last 18 months.

What is the outlook for business investment and productivity in 2024?

Business investment is expected to increase in 2024, but it will still be limited by high interest rates. New laws like the CHIPS and Science Act and the Inflation Reduction Act will help boost business.

How is fiscal policy expected to impact the economy in 2024?

The big fiscal boost in 2023 will turn into a slight drag in 2024. The federal deficit will shrink as spending is cut back a bit.

What are the key risks and uncertainties facing the US economy in 2024?

Trade tensions, global conflicts, and supply shocks in key commodities or energy could all affect the economy’s stability.

How does the US economic outlook compare to other global economies?

The US economy is expected to grow faster than many others, leading to more imports than exports in 2024.

What is the outlook for regional economic performance in the US?

The national growth slowdown might not affect all states and cities the same way. Local factors like industry mix, labor markets, and economic sector exposure will play a role.

How are financial sector and credit conditions expected to impact the economy in 2024?

High interest rates and challenges for small and regional banks will make lending harder and slow growth, especially in commercial real estate.

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